By Şevket Furkan ERBAY

World Athletics has announced the qualification guidelines and entry standards for the Los Angeles 2028 Summer Olympics. Since introducing the world rankings system in 2019, qualifying standards have become increasingly demanding year after year, and this upward trend continues for LA 2028.

The calculations behind the 2028 qualification standards were based on the principle that about 60 per cent of the 1,810 athletes expected to compete at the Olympics would qualify via world rankings. Accordingly, during the one-year qualification period, which begins on 18 June 2027, it is anticipated that 40 per cent of athletes will fail to meet the established qualifying standards. If this percentage is exceeded, fewer athletes will secure Olympic places through world rankings. In such a case, once athletes meet the qualifying standards, the remaining quota places will be allocated based on world rankings.

Previously, Olympic athletics qualification operated with two levels of standards, known as the A and B standards. A single-standard system was introduced starting with the Rio de Janeiro 2016 Olympic Games, while world rankings were incorporated into the qualification process after Tokyo. Under this new system, half of the athletes who qualified for the athletics competitions at Tokyo 2020 and Paris 2024 secured their places through world rankings rather than by achieving the increasingly demanding qualifying standards.

An examination of the newly announced standards shows that securing an Olympic place in 2028 will be even harder. Participation numbers in sprint and road events have been reduced, while qualifying standards have risen to their highest levels ever. In addition, the total number of athletes expected to compete at the Games has decreased by approximately one-eighth compared with previous editions. While the plans for Beijing 2008 envisaged 2,000 athletes across 47 events (although 2,057 athletes eventually competed), this figure has fallen to 1,810 athletes across 48 events over the past twenty years.

Over the past two decades, qualifying standards have increased by an average of 4 per cent between 2008 and 2028. The most dramatic changes from Beijing to Los Angeles appear in the marathon and combined events. In addition to the number of marathon participants being cut by half, from around 120 to 70, the significantly harder qualifying times will make this discipline particularly challenging for athletes. With the direct qualifying standards lowered to 2:05:00 for men and 2:22:20 for women, marathon runners face an exceptionally demanding task.

The women's marathon, where 81 athletes qualified for Beijing 2008 with a time of 2:37:00, has seen the largest increase in qualifying standards of all disciplines, at 9.34 per cent. The men's marathon has seen a 7.41 per cent change, while the decathlon (%8.13) and heptathlon (%9.17) are among the disciplines with the largest increases in qualifying requirements.

In the men's 100 metres, which had a direct qualifying standard of 10.00 seconds for Paris 2024, the threshold has been lowered below 10 seconds for the first time. It remains to be seen how many sprinters can achieve the new standard of 9.93 seconds.

In the women's 100 metres, athletes seeking to secure their Olympic qualification directly will need to run 10.93 seconds, equivalent to a ranking score of no less than 1,209 points.

The list below shows how athletics qualifying standards for the Olympic Games have changed over the past 20 years. (Note: The A qualifying standards have been used for 2008.)

Event: 2008 mark > 2028 mark (change %)
MEN
100m: 10.21 > 9.93  (2.74)
200m: 20.59 > 19.95 (3.11)
400m: 45.55  > 44.40 (2.52)
800m: 1:46.00 > 1:43.00 (2.83)
1500m: 3:36.00 > 3:30.00 (2.78)
5000m: 13:21.50 > 12:50.00 (3.93)
10,000m: 27:50.00  > 26:48.00 (3.11)
Marathon: 2:15:00 > 2:05:00 (7.41)
3000SC: 8:24.60 > 8:07.50 (3.39)
110H: 13.55 > 13.18 (2.73)
400H: 49.20 > 48.00 (2.44)
HJ: 2.30 > 2.32 (0.87)
PV: 5.70 > 5.90 (3.51)
LJ: 8.20 > 8.30 (1.22)
TJ: 17.10 > 17.35 (1.46)
SP: 20.30 > 21.50 (5.91)
DT: 64.50 > 67.20 (4.19)
HT: 78.50 > 78.50  (0)
JT: 81.00 > 85.50 (4.94)
Dec: 8000 > 8650 (8.13)

WOMEN
100m: 11.32 > 10.96 (3.18)
200m: 23.00 > 22.25 (3.26)
400m: 51.55 > 49.90 (3.2)
800m: 2:00.00 > 1:57.00 (2.5)
1500m: 4:07.00 > 3:57.50 (3.85)
5000m: 15:09.00 > 14:34.00 (3.85)
10,000m: 31:45.00 > 30:30.00 (3.94)
Marathon: 2:37:00 > 2:22:20 (9.34)
3000SC: 9:46.00 > 9:06.00 (6.83)
100H: 12.96 > 12.58 (2.93)
400H: 55.60 > 54.00 (2.88)
HJ: 1.95 > 1.97 (1.03)
PV: 4.45 > 4.80 (7.87)
LJ: 6.72 > 6.90 (2.68)
TJ: 14.20 > 14.50 (2.11)
SP: 18.30 > 19.30 (5.46)
DT: 61.00 > 65.00 (6.56)
HT: 69.50 > 74.00 (6.47)
JT: 60.50 > 63.80 (5.45)
Hept: 6000 > 6550 (9.17)