By Şevket F. ERBAY

Throughout the history of athletics, the United States is considered the undisputed nation for the men's one-lap race. The much-demanded 400 metres, a classic event for the Olympics, the Stars and Stripes has been waved 46 times, almost half the medal spots for the event. The US runners were mainly challenged by the Caribbeans and Europeans. However, it is changing right now. The African sprinters emerged in the 80s, and they're a growing threat to the US monopoly. The numbers say much, as the top 10 averages are as close as ever between Northern Americans and Africans, with their 44.03 and 44.38 marks, respectively.  

STRONGEST SEASON

In 2024, Zambia's Muzala Samukonga clocked a massive 43.74 in the Paris final to take the bronze medal, which became the eighth podium place to go to Africa. The mark has strengthened African presence at the event and played an enormous role, with a 44.38 average for the year. The 10 best African mark average has been dipped below 45 seconds for the first time in 1996, the year Davis Kamoga of Uganda took the bronze behind Michael Johnson and Roger Black. After 1996, the average stood at over 45 seconds until 2015. Again, thanks to the great Botswanan emergence and world record (43.03 in Rio) holder Wayde Van Niekerk's contribution, it steadily lowered every year since then. Within the last three seasons, it went from 44.922 to 44.588 and 44.384, an all-time best for the continent. Compared with Van Niekerk's world-record-breaking 2016 season, African long sprinters have done better almost half a second faster last year. At top of it all, eight of the top 30 best African 400 metres marks were registered during the 2024 season.

CHANGING SHIFT

When we analyse the country breakdown at the top 10 presence in the African list by years, we can see some significant shift among the nations. In the early times, Nigeria and Kenya have dominated the 400 metres list, but Botswana took the lead from them around over the last 10 years. They put their first athlete in the top 10 in 2002, and now have five in 2023 and four in 2024, including Letsile Tebogo, their Olympic hero in 200 metres. Starting in 2015, Botswana is the leading African nation with 36 performances on the very same top scale as South Africa (27) and Kenya (20) follows. In the terms of country shift, Nigeria has lost ground when its portion shrinks to nine spots from 33 (athletes in the top 10) in the 80s.

THE NUMBERS - SINCE 1980

Country breakdown in Top 10 places for 400m list

Nigeria (81), South Africa (82), Kenya (78), Botswana (57), Uganda (20), Zimbabwe (17), Zambia (16), Sudan (16), Senegal (12), Ivory Coast (9), Congo DR (9), Ghana (9), Mauritius (8), Morocco (6), Tunisia (6), Egypt (5), Algeria (5), The Gambia (3), Libya (3), Lesotho (2), Benin (1), Ethiopia (1), Cameroon (1), Namibya (1), Sierra Leone (1), Sao Tome (1),  

Top 10 average - Africa

1980s - 45.904

1990s - 45.282

2000s - 45.270

2010s - 45.175

2020 - 45.891 (Covid-19 effected season)

2021 - 45.024

2022 - 44.922

2023 - 44.588

2024 -  44.384 - Highest ever

Last 10 season leaders

2015 - Wayde Van Niekerk, South Africa, 43.48

2016 - Wayde Van Niekerk, South Africa, 43.03 WR

2017 - Wayde Van Niekerk, South Africa, 43.62

2018 - Emmanuel Korir, Kenya, 44.21

2019 - Emmanuel Korir, Kenya, 44.37

2020 - Wayde Van Niekerk, South Africa, 45.58

2021 - Isaac Makwala, Botswana, 44.47

2022 - Wayde Van Niekerk, South Africa, 44.33

2023 - Muzala Samukonga, Zambia, 43.91

2024 - Muzala Samukonga, Zambia, 43.74

Five athletes in Top 10

Nigeria (1985, 1986, 1989)

Kenya (1996)

South Africa (2001, 2011)

Botswana (2021, 2023